NDC puts Lagos's external debt at $190.43m "at the end of 2007" when Tinubu left. That is the DMO's 2006 figure; its 2007 table says $243.28m

On Saturday 7 November 2026 the Nigeria Democratic Congress answered President Bola Tinubu's remarks about Peter Obi and gully erosion in Anambra with a comparison of the two men's records as governors. The statement was signed by Dr Chiogo Constance Ikokwu, spokesperson of the party's National Presidential Campaign Council, which runs the campaign of Obi and his running mate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, for the election of 16 January 2027. Vanguard printed it the same day. After saying that Obi left investments and bonds behind in Anambra in 2014, the statement went on, in the words Vanguard quoted directly: "In contrast, available Debt Management Office figures put Lagos State's external debt at approximately $190.43 million at the end of 2007, when Mr Tinubu handed over to his successor."

The Debt Management Office keeps state-by-state tables of external debt on its website, under Sub-National Debts, going back to 2006. Its table titled "Federal and States' External Debt Stock as at 31 December, 2006", in US dollars, lists Lagos in row 24 at $190,435,328.28, all of it owed to multilateral lenders, with nothing under non-Paris bilateral debt or promissory notes. That is the figure in the NDC statement: $190.44 million when rounded, and $190.43 million when the last digits are simply cut off. It is the DMO's figure for 31 December 2006, not for the end of 2007.

The DMO's next table, "Federal and States' External Debt Stock as at 31st December, 2007", gives Lagos a different number. Row 24 lists $243,283,449.01, again all multilateral, with nothing under non-Paris and other commercial debt. Set against the figure the NDC quoted, that is $243,283,449.01 - $190,435,328.28 = $52,848,120.73 more, a rise of 27.75 per cent in one year.

The date and the event in the NDC's sentence are seven months apart. Tinubu handed over to his successor, Babatunde Fashola, on 29 May 2007. That day fell 149 days after the date of the 2006 table and 216 days before the date of the 2007 table. The statement attached the end-2006 figure to the end of 2007 and to the handover at once. Neither DMO table records Lagos's external debt on 29 May 2007; the two year-end readings either side of it are $190,435,328.28 and $243,283,449.01.

On the substance, the record does not cut against the NDC's point. The number it gave is a real DMO figure, and it is the last year-end figure the DMO published before Tinubu left office. Had the campaign used the DMO's figure for the date it actually named, the end of 2007, the number would have been higher, not lower. Both tables also show that Lagos owed more external debt than any other state: at the end of 2006 it was ahead of Oyo at $113,853,344.68 and Cross River at $93,517,687.99, and at the end of 2007 ahead of Oyo at $108,924,820.05 and Cross River at $94,445,030.08.

The tables also put Lagos's share in context. At the end of 2006 the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory owed $1,375,934,904.50 abroad, and Lagos's $190,435,328.28 was 13.84 per cent of it. At the end of 2007 they owed $1,541,536,782.50, and Lagos's $243,283,449.01 was 15.78 per cent. The states' total rose by $165,601,878.00, or 12.04 per cent, in 2007. Lagos accounted for $52,848,120.73 of that, or 31.91 per cent; the other 36 rose together from $1,185,499,576.22 to $1,298,253,333.49, by $112,753,757.27, or 9.51 per cent.

The same tables carry the federal government's own external debt: $2,168,555,095.50 at the end of 2006 and $2,112,672,341.20 at the end of 2007, which together with the states give grand totals of $3,544,490,000.00 and $3,654,209,123.70. The 37 state and FCT rows of the 2006 table add exactly to the printed total. Those of the 2007 table add to $1,541,536,782.52, two cents above the printed $1,541,536,782.50, a rounding difference that does not touch the Lagos row.

The tables give one dollar figure per state and list no loans, so they cannot show what drove Lagos's rise in 2007. It may have come from money drawn down on loans signed before the handover, from loans signed after it, or from the conversion into dollars of loans owed in other currencies; the documents do not separate these, and this report does not assign the rise to either administration.

Nor do the tables settle the wider comparison the NDC drew. External debt is one part of a state's obligations; the DMO tables used here say nothing about Lagos's domestic borrowing in 2007, its assets, or the value of what the loans paid for. The statement's figures for Obi's record in Anambra, $500 million in investments and $156 million in dollar-denominated bonds, and its account of the Lagos pension law for former governors, were not tested for this report.

What the record supports is narrower than the campaign's sentence. The DMO's tables put Lagos State's external debt at $190,435,328.28 about five months before Tinubu left office and at $243,283,449.01 about seven months after. The NDC quoted the first number and gave it the date of the second.

The NDC campaign and the Debt Management Office were not asked for comment before publication. The figures above are the DMO's own, taken from its two published tables and set against the campaign's statement as Vanguard printed it.

What this rests on

Two tables of the Debt Management Office, downloaded on 8 November 2026 from dmo.gov.ng (Sub-National Debts) and read for this report: "Federal and States' External Debt Stock as at 31 December, 2006" (1 page, document 1071, PDF created 6 November 2009) and "Federal and States' External Debt Stock as at 31st December, 2007" (1 page, document 1072, PDF created 6 November 2009). The claim is from the NDC National Presidential Campaign Council statement signed by Dr Chiogo Constance Ikokwu on 7 November 2026, quoted directly by Vanguard on 7 November 2026. Arithmetic re-done: Lagos end-2007 $243,283,449.01 - end-2006 $190,435,328.28 = $52,848,120.73, and 52,848,120.73 / 190,435,328.28 = 27.75 per cent; $190,435,328.28 is $190.435 million, $190.44 million rounded and $190.43 million truncated. Days: 31 December 2006 to 29 May 2007 = 149 days; 29 May 2007 to 31 December 2007 = 216 days; 149 + 216 = 365. Shares: 190,435,328.28 / 1,375,934,904.50 = 13.84 per cent; 243,283,449.01 / 1,541,536,782.50 = 15.78 per cent. States and FCT total 1,541,536,782.50 - 1,375,934,904.50 = 165,601,878.00 (12.04 per cent); Lagos share of the rise 52,848,120.73 / 165,601,878.00 = 31.91 per cent; other 36: 1,375,934,904.50 - 190,435,328.28 = 1,185,499,576.22 and 1,541,536,782.50 - 243,283,449.01 = 1,298,253,333.49, rise 112,753,757.27 (9.51 per cent). The 37 rows of the 2006 table add to 1,375,934,904.50 exactly; the 37 rows of the 2007 table add to 1,541,536,782.52 against a printed 1,541,536,782.50. Federal rows: 2,168,555,095.50 (2006) and 2,112,672,341.20 (2007); grand totals 3,544,490,000.00 and 3,654,209,123.70. Next-highest states: Oyo 113,853,344.68 and Cross River 93,517,687.99 (2006); Oyo 108,924,820.05 and Cross River 94,445,030.08 (2007).

What this does not establish

Lagos State's external debt on 29 May 2007, the day Tinubu handed over; the DMO tables give year-end figures only. What caused the $52,848,120.73 rise in 2007: drawdowns on loans signed before the handover, loans signed after it, or currency conversion; the tables list no loans and no currencies. Lagos's domestic debt, assets or the use of the loans. Whether the NDC took its figure from the 2006 table or from a secondary source that misdated it. The statement's claims about Obi's record in Anambra ($500 million of investments, $156 million of dollar bonds) and about the Lagos pension law for former governors were not tested. Nothing in the documents suggests wrongdoing by anyone, and none is alleged. The NDC campaign and the DMO were not asked for comment.