Obi says Tinubu borrowed nearly $100bn. DMO tables put Nigeria's whole public debt at $113.42bn in June 2023 and $120.93bn in June 2026

On Thursday, 29 October 2026, at a town hall meeting of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) at the Amadeo Event Centre in Enugu, the party's presidential candidate, Peter Obi, said of President Bola Tinubu: "He must go round Nigeria and tell them what he used nearly $100 billion he borrowed for," according to Premium Times. In Yenagoa the next day, Daily Trust reported him as saying: "Our president has borrowed nearly $100 billion, nobody knows what he did with the money." Vero Record set the figure against the Debt Management Office's own tables of Nigeria's total public debt, which the office publishes in both dollars and naira. On 30 June 2023, 32 days after Mr Tinubu took office, the DMO counted the entire public debt of the Federal Government, the states and the Federal Capital Territory at $113,423.77 million. On 30 June 2026 it counted $120,932.71 million. Measured the way the DMO itself measures it in dollars, the whole debt rose by $7,508.94 million, about $7.51 billion, in three years.

The June 2023 table is a one-page DMO release. It puts external debt at $43,159.19 million (N33,248,976.79 million) and domestic debt at $70,264.58 million (N54,130,424.96 million), for a total of N87,379,401.75 million. Its notes say the Central Bank of Nigeria's official rate of N770.38 to the dollar on 30 June 2023 was used for the conversion, and that the Federal Government's domestic debt includes the N22.7 trillion of Ways and Means advances at the CBN whose securitisation the National Assembly approved in May 2023. The starting point of the comparison therefore already contains the overdraft the Tinubu administration inherited.

The June 2026 table, released by the DMO in September, puts external debt at $54,523.57 million (N75,198,046.27 million) and domestic debt at $66,409.14 million (N91,590,433.92 million), for a total of $120,932.71 million or N166,788,480.19 million. Its note gives the conversion rate as N1,379.1842 to the dollar on 30 June 2026. Both tables add up: $43,159.19 million plus $70,264.58 million is $113,423.77 million, and $54,523.57 million plus $66,409.14 million is $120,932.71 million.

On much of what the Obi campaign has said about debt, the record supports it. In naira, the total rose by N79,409,078.44 million, or 90.88 per cent, so the debt nearly doubled in three years. External debt rose by $11,364.38 million, or 26.33 per cent. Those are the figures given in a statement from the NDC's National Presidential Campaign Council, issued by its spokesperson, Dr Chiogo Constance Ikokwu, and reported by The Sun on 30 October: external debt from $43.16 billion to $54.52 billion, up $11.36 billion or 26.3 per cent, and total debt that "climbed from N87.38 trillion to N166.79 trillion", about 90.9 per cent. Each of those numbers matches the DMO's tables to rounding.

The dollar total moves much less than the naira total because the DMO converts naira debt to dollars at the rate of the day. Domestic debt rose by N37,460,008.96 million in naira, or 69.20 per cent, yet in the DMO's dollar column it fell from $70,264.58 million to $66,409.14 million, because the naira went from N770.38 to N1,379.1842 to the dollar. Domestic debt is owed and serviced in naira, so the $7.51 billion change in the dollar total understates how much new naira debt was taken on. It is the least generous way to read the two tables.

More generous readings still fall well short of $100 billion. If the new external debt, $11,364.38 million, is added to the rise in domestic debt converted at the June 2026 rate (N37,460,008.96 million divided by 1,379.1842, or $27,160.99 million), the result is $38,525.37 million. If the domestic rise is instead converted at the June 2023 rate of N770.38, which makes it worth $48,625.37 million, the result is $59,989.75 million. On either basis the net new borrowing the two tables record is between about $38.53 billion and $59.99 billion, at least $40.01 billion short of $100 billion.

The two tables yield a number above $100 billion only if the whole N79.41 trillion rise in naira is converted at the June 2023 rate, which gives $103,077.80 million. But N26,275,496.14 million of that rise is not borrowing. It is the DMO re-pricing the $43,159.19 million of external debt already owed on 30 June 2023 at the new exchange rate: $43,159.19 million multiplied by the difference between N1,379.1842 and N770.38. The rest of the rise in external debt in naira, N15,673,573.34 million, is the $11,364.38 million of new external debt at the 2026 rate, and the two parts add to the N41,949,069.48 million rise the tables show. For the new domestic and external debt together to reach $100 billion, the N37.46 trillion of new domestic debt would have to be converted at about N422.63 to the dollar, little more than half the N770.38 rate the DMO used for June 2023. Neither report of Mr Obi's speeches gives the source or the calculation behind his figure.

The same standard applies to the government's side of this argument. When Mr Obi said in June that the debt was approaching N200 trillion, the presidential aide Olusegun Dada wrote on X that most of the increase was "mathematical impacts of currency devaluation". The tables bear that out only in part: the re-pricing of debt already owed, N26.28 trillion, is 33.09 per cent of the N79.41 trillion rise, and the other 66.91 per cent, N53.13 trillion, is new debt. News Central's report of that exchange paraphrased Mr Dada as putting the debt at about $108 billion in 2023 and $109 billion in 2026. The DMO's tables give $113.42 billion and $120.93 billion.

Mr Obi's words were about what the president borrowed, and the tables also separate the Federal Government's own debt from that of the states and the FCT. The Federal Government's external debt rose from $38,809.98 million to $47,690.77 million, by $8,880.79 million or 22.88 per cent, and its domestic debt from N48,314,740.14 million to N86,999,153.24 million, by N38,684,413.10 million or 80.07 per cent. On the federal rows alone, the generous readings give $36,929.55 million at the 2026 rate and $59,095.51 million at the 2023 rate. Over the same period the states' and FCT's external debt rose by $2,483.59 million while their domestic debt fell by N1,224,404.14 million. The June 2023 table notes that the domestic figures for Kebbi, Ogun, the FCT, Kano, Katsina and Rivers were as at earlier dates, as far back as 30 September 2021 for Rivers.

Mr Obi spoke as the National Assembly considered a request from the president, reported by Premium Times, to approve external loans of $20,517,755,901 and EUR 1,045,083,643 under a 2026 to 2027 Supplementary External Borrowing Plan. Vero Record has not obtained the letter. Money that is requested but not yet approved or drawn is not borrowed and is not in the June 2026 stock. Even if the dollar part of the request were added in full to the range above, the total would be $59.04 billion to $80.51 billion.

The tables do not settle every reading of the word "borrowed". Nigeria refinances maturing Treasury bills and bonds by issuing new ones, so the gross amount raised over three years is far larger than the net change in the stock of debt; the DMO's quarterly stock tables do not report gross issuance, and Mr Obi did not say which measure he meant. If his figure counts refinancing of debt that existed before May 2023, these two documents cannot test it. They also say nothing about how the borrowed money was spent, which was the substance of his challenge, and the Presidency had not answered his 29 October remarks in any report Vero Record found.

What the two DMO tables do establish is narrower and checkable in a minute. Over the three years from 30 June 2023 to 30 June 2026, Nigeria's public debt grew by N79.41 trillion in naira, as Mr Obi's campaign council said, and by $7.51 billion in the DMO's own dollar column. Counting only new debt, at either of the two exchange rates the DMO itself used, the increase is between $38.53 billion and $59.99 billion. The documents give no basis for nearly $100 billion of net new borrowing.

What this rests on

Two one-page releases of the Debt Management Office, downloaded by Vero Record from dmo.gov.ng on 31 October 2026 and read in full: Nigeria's Total Public Debt Portfolio as at June 30, 2023 (DMO document 4404, PDF created 12 September 2023) and Nigeria's Total Public Debt Portfolio as at June 30, 2026 (DMO document 6080, PDF created 25 September 2026). Obi's words are as reported by Premium Times (29 October 2026, Enugu) and Daily Trust (30 October 2026, Yenagoa); the NDC campaign council's figures as reported by The Sun (30 October 2026). Arithmetic re-done. Table totals: 43,159.19 + 70,264.58 = 113,423.77 ($m, 2023); 54,523.57 + 66,409.14 = 120,932.71 ($m, 2026); 33,248,976.79 + 54,130,424.96 = 87,379,401.75 (Nm, 2023); 75,198,046.27 + 91,590,433.92 = 166,788,480.19 (Nm, 2026). Conversion check: 43,159.19 x 770.38 = 33,248,976.79 and 54,523.57 x 1,379.1842 = 75,198,046.27, so external debt is converted at the period-end rate; 54,130,424.96 / 770.38 = 70,264.58 and 91,590,433.92 / 1,379.1842 = 66,409.14. Changes: dollar total 120,932.71 - 113,423.77 = 7,508.94 (6.62 per cent); external 54,523.57 - 43,159.19 = 11,364.38 (26.33 per cent); domestic in dollars 66,409.14 - 70,264.58 = -3,855.44; naira total 166,788,480.19 - 87,379,401.75 = 79,409,078.44 (90.88 per cent); naira domestic 91,590,433.92 - 54,130,424.96 = 37,460,008.96 (69.20 per cent); naira external 75,198,046.27 - 33,248,976.79 = 41,949,069.48. Split of the external naira rise: re-pricing 43,159.19 x (1,379.1842 - 770.38 = 608.8042) = 26,275,496.14; new debt 11,364.38 x 1,379.1842 = 15,673,573.34; 26,275,496.14 + 15,673,573.34 = 41,949,069.48. Re-pricing share 26,275,496.14 / 79,409,078.44 = 33.09 per cent; remainder 53,133,582.30 = 66.91 per cent. Net new borrowing in dollars: 37,460,008.96 / 1,379.1842 = 27,160.99, plus 11,364.38 = 38,525.37; 37,460,008.96 / 770.38 = 48,625.37, plus 11,364.38 = 59,989.75; 100,000 - 59,989.75 = 40,010.25. Whole naira rise at the 2023 rate: 79,409,078.44 / 770.38 = 103,077.80. Rate needed for $100bn: 37,460,008.96 / (100,000 - 11,364.38 = 88,635.62) = N422.63. Federal Government rows: external 47,690.77 - 38,809.98 = 8,880.79 (22.88 per cent); domestic 86,999,153.24 - 48,314,740.14 = 38,684,413.10 (80.07 per cent); 38,684,413.10 / 1,379.1842 = 28,048.76, plus 8,880.79 = 36,929.55; 38,684,413.10 / 770.38 = 50,214.72, plus 8,880.79 = 59,095.51. States and FCT: external 6,832.80 - 4,349.21 = 2,483.59; domestic 4,591,280.68 - 5,815,684.82 = -1,224,404.14. New request (dollar part only): 38,525.37 + 20,517.76 = 59,043.13 and 59,989.75 + 20,517.76 = 80,507.51 ($m). Days: 29 May 2023 to 30 June 2023 is 2 + 30 = 32 days; 30 June 2023 to 30 June 2026 is 1,096 days (365 + 366 + 365), three years. 29 October 2026 was a Thursday. All dollar figures in millions unless stated as billions; billions are the millions divided by 1,000 and rounded to two decimals.

What this does not establish

How Mr Obi arrived at nearly $100 billion; neither report of his speeches gives a source or calculation, and Vero Record did not obtain one from his campaign. Whether he meant gross borrowing, including the refinancing of maturing Treasury bills and bonds that existed before May 2023; the DMO stock tables report net positions, not gross issuance, and cannot test a gross figure. How the borrowed money was spent, which was the substance of his challenge; nothing in these documents addresses it. The contents and status of the reported request for $20,517,755,901 and EUR 1,045,083,643; the letter was not obtained. Debt after 30 June 2026, which the DMO has not yet published. Whether the June 2023 state figures are complete: the DMO's own note says six subnational domestic figures were as at earlier dates. Debt outside the DMO's total, such as contingent liabilities and AMCON obligations, is not counted in either table. Mr Dada's June dollar figures come from a paraphrase in a news report, not his own words. Nothing in this report suggests wrongdoing by anyone, and none is alleged. The NDC campaign and the Presidency were not asked for comment.