Tinubu's campaign calls 2026's N3.52tn for education a record. His 2025 budget speech gave education the same N3.52tn

On Wednesday, 4 November 2026, the APC Presidential Campaign Council issued a statement through its spokesman, Dele Alake, the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, setting out what it called the Tinubu government's record in education. Vanguard and Leadership reported it as saying the Federal Government "allocated a record N3.52 trillion to education in the 2026 budget". The figure is the government's own: President Bola Tinubu's 2026 budget speech, delivered on 19 December 2025, lists "Education: 3.52 trillion naira". His 2025 budget speech, delivered a year earlier on 18 December 2024, lists "Education: N3.52 trillion" as well. On the President's own budget figures, education was given the same amount for 2026 as for 2025, while proposed total spending rose from N47.90 trillion to N58.18 trillion.

The council's words reached the public as reported speech. Vanguard's account of 4 November and Leadership's of 5 November both carry the phrase "a record N3.52 trillion"; The Sun's account of the same statement says only that the government "allocated N3.52 trillion to education in the 2026 budget". None of the three gives the sentence as a direct quotation, and Vero Record did not see the statement's full text. According to the reports, the council drew its figures from a Federal Ministry of Education document it called the Nigerian Education Sector Renewal Initiative (NESRI) 2026 report, which was not obtained for this report.

The two budget speeches can be read side by side. In the text of the 2025 presentation, paragraph 18 projects government expenditure of 47.90 trillion naira, including 15.81 trillion naira for debt servicing, and paragraph 23 lists the highlights: Defence and Security N4.91 trillion, Infrastructure N4.06 trillion, Health N2.48 trillion and Education N3.52 trillion. In the 2026 speech posted on the State House website, paragraph 18 puts projected total expenditure at 58.18 trillion naira, including 15.52 trillion naira for debt servicing, and paragraph 22 lists Defence and security 5.41 trillion naira, Infrastructure 3.56 trillion naira, Education 3.52 trillion naira and Health 2.48 trillion naira. Education and health carry identical figures in both years. Defence rose by N0.50 trillion and infrastructure fell by N0.50 trillion.

Measured against the total each speech announced, education's share fell. N3.52 trillion was 7.35 per cent of the N47.90 trillion proposed for 2025 and 6.05 per cent of the N58.18 trillion proposed for 2026. Proposed spending grew by N10.28 trillion, or 21.46 per cent, between the two speeches; the education figure did not change. The record therefore supports the council on the number itself: N3.52 trillion is what the President announced for education in 2026. It does not support calling that number a record, because the President had announced the same N3.52 trillion for 2025.

A budget speech is a proposal; the money is voted in the Appropriation Act. The 2026 Act authorises N68,323,309,818,667 in all, and no line in it reads N3.52 trillion for education. Its schedule gives the Federal Ministry of Education N1,381,861,093,397 for recurrent spending (head 86, page xiii), N655,823,091,110 for capital (head 217, page xxi) and N30,644,312,730 for loan-funded projects (head 233, page xxii), and gives the Universal Basic Education Commission a statutory transfer of N490,283,091,346 (head 34, page ix). Together that is N2,558,611,588,583. The ministry's own section of the Act, pages 1817 to 1822, lists 268 agencies, from the ministry headquarters and the basic education commission to the federal universities, polytechnics and unity colleges, and prints their total as N2,558,611,588,582; the one naira is rounding. That is 3.74 per cent of the Act's total.

The same section carries a second figure. Its summary row at the top of page 1817 prints N2,398,761,320,016, the same sum, to the naira, as the education row in the budget proposal the President sent to the National Assembly. The agency table beneath it adds to N159,850,268,566 more, and is headed "2025 APPROPRIATION ACT" although its figures are not those of the 2025 Act. The Act's own schedule agrees with the agency table, not with the summary row, so this report uses N2,558,611,588,582 as the 2026 education allocation.

The 2025 Appropriation Act, as passed and signed in February 2025, prints the ministry's total on page 1419 as N2,594,910,121,858: personnel N1,533,035,999,740, overhead N123,294,832,092 and capital N938,579,290,026. Vero Record re-added its 259 agency rows and they give the same total. Set against it, the 2026 allocation is N36,298,533,276 lower, a fall of 1.40 per cent. Inside the total the mix changed: capital fell by N252,111,886,186, or 26.86 per cent, while personnel rose by N206,815,417,735, or 13.49 per cent, and overhead by N8,997,935,176.

That comparison has a limit, and it cuts the other way. The 2025 Act was later repealed and re-enacted. The re-enactment bill published by the Budget Office cuts the 2025 total to N48,316,242,591,785 and gives the ministry N1,159,488,586,561 for recurrent spending, N234,844,467,612 for capital and N193,097,731,320 for loan-funded projects, with N496,842,245,271 for the basic education commission: N2,084,273,030,764 in all. Against those figures the 2026 allocation is N474,338,557,818 higher, a rise of 22.76 per cent. Vero Record did not see a signed copy of the re-enacted Act. Whether the 2026 Act gives education more than 2025 therefore depends on which version of the 2025 budget is used; neither version, nor the 2026 Act, contains a figure of N3.52 trillion.

Neither speech says what its N3.52 trillion is made of. In the 2026 Act, the ministry and the basic education commission together come to N961.39 billion less than that figure. The difference may lie in money outside the Act, such as the Tertiary Education Trust Fund, which is financed from a separate education tax (the 2025 re-enactment bill lists "Education Tax (TETFund)" of N990 billion among its revenue lines), or in education projects placed under other ministries. The documents read for this report do not settle it.

The statement contains many other figures that were not tested here. Its student loan total adds up on its own terms: N192.89 billion for tuition and institutional fees and N179.73 billion for upkeep make N372.62 billion. Premium Times' account of the Education Minister, Tunji Alausa, on Channels Television on 3 November put about N370 billion through the loan fund and described about N192 billion of it as stipends, which does not match the council's split; the loan fund's own records were not examined. The US$552 million for the HOPE-EDU basic education programme, the one million out-of-school children said to be back in class and the nursing enrolment figures were not checked against primary records.

Set side by side, the government's documents support the council's N3.52 trillion as the President's announced figure for education in 2026. They do not show it to be a record: the President's 2025 budget speech announced the same N3.52 trillion, and that sum was a larger share of a smaller budget. The 2026 Appropriation Act gives the education ministry and the basic education commission N2,558,611,588,582, which is below the 2025 Act as first signed and above the bill that re-enacted it. Nothing in these documents suggests wrongdoing by anyone.

What this rests on

Primary documents read for this report: President Tinubu's 2026 budget speech, "Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity", as posted by the State House (paragraphs 18 and 22), saved as HTML on 6 November 2026; the text of his 2025 budget presentation, "The 2025 Budget of Restoration", delivered on 18 December 2024 (pp.3 and 4, paragraphs 18 and 23), in the copy published by the Policy and Legal Advocacy Centre; the 2026 Appropriation Act (long title p.iii; schedule pp.ix, xiii, xxi and xxii; Federal Ministry of Education section pp.1817 to 1822); the 2025 Appropriation Act as passed (Federal Ministry of Education section pp.1419 to 1424); and the Budget Office's Appropriation Act, 2025 (Repeal and Enactment) Bill (schedule Parts J, L and M). Arithmetic re-done: speech shares N3.52tn / N47.90tn = 7.35%, N3.52tn / N58.18tn = 6.05%; N58.18tn - N47.90tn = N10.28tn, a rise of 21.46%; defence N5.41tn - N4.91tn = +N0.50tn, infrastructure N3.56tn - N4.06tn = -N0.50tn. 2026 Act schedule: N1,381,861,093,397 + N655,823,091,110 + N30,644,312,730 + N490,283,091,346 = N2,558,611,588,583; the 268 agency rows on pp.1817 to 1822 re-added give N2,558,611,588,583, and their printed total is N2,558,611,588,582 (personnel N1,739,851,417,475 + overhead N132,292,767,268 + capital N686,467,403,840 = N2,558,611,588,583, so the printed total is one naira lower by rounding); recurrent check: N1,739,851,417,475 + N132,292,767,268 - N490,283,091,346 = N1,381,861,093,397, the head 86 figure; capital check: N686,467,403,840 - N655,823,091,110 = N30,644,312,730, the head 233 figure; share N2,558,611,588,582 / N68,323,309,818,667 = 3.74%; summary row N1,679,387,148,903 + N127,792,767,273 + N591,581,403,840 = N2,398,761,320,016, and N2,558,611,588,582 - N2,398,761,320,016 = N159,850,268,566. 2025 Act: N1,533,035,999,740 + N123,294,832,092 + N938,579,290,026 = N2,594,910,121,858, and its 259 agency rows re-added give the same; N2,594,910,121,858 - N2,558,611,588,582 = N36,298,533,276 (1.40%); capital N938,579,290,026 - N686,467,403,840 = N252,111,886,186 (26.86%); personnel N1,739,851,417,475 - N1,533,035,999,740 = N206,815,417,735 (13.49%); overhead N132,292,767,268 - N123,294,832,092 = N8,997,935,176. 2025 re-enactment bill: N1,159,488,586,561 + N234,844,467,612 + N193,097,731,320 + N496,842,245,271 = N2,084,273,030,764; N2,558,611,588,582 - N2,084,273,030,764 = N474,338,557,818 (22.76%). Gap to the speech figure: N3,520bn - N2,558.61bn = N961.39bn. Student loans: N192.89bn + N179.73bn = N372.62bn. Dates: statement issued 4 November 2026; 2025 speech 18 December 2024; 2026 speech 19 December 2025.

What this does not establish

The full text of the council's statement and the NESRI 2026 report it is said to cite; the word "record" is taken from Vanguard's and Leadership's reported accounts, and The Sun's account does not use it. What the N3.52 trillion in either budget speech is made of, and whether it includes the Tertiary Education Trust Fund or education projects in other ministries; neither speech itemises it. Why the summary row of the education section of the 2026 Act prints the proposal's N2,398,761,320,016 while the agency rows and the Act's schedule give N2,558,611,588,582. The figures of the signed, re-enacted 2025 Appropriation Act; only the Budget Office's re-enactment bill was read. How much of either year's allocation has been released or spent; an allocation is not a release or a payment. Education figures for years before 2025 were not checked. The student loan, HOPE-EDU, out-of-school children, nursing, teacher training and staff support figures in the statement were not tested against primary records. Nothing in this report suggests wrongdoing by anyone.