NDC says the Electoral Act lets it replace defectors. Section 33 allows that only on death or withdrawal, and INEC shut replacements by 19 September

On Tuesday 20 October the Nigeria Democratic Congress, the party whose presidential ticket is Peter Obi with Rabiu Kwankwaso, said some of its candidates had defected to the All Progressives Congress and promised to replace them. Its National Publicity Secretary, Osa Director, said in a statement reported by Premium Times and Vanguard: "In line with the provisions of the Electoral Act, 2026, the party will immediately conduct fresh congresses to elect credible, competent, and trustworthy candidates to replace the defectors in the affected constituencies." Vero Record set that sentence against the Electoral Act 2026 as INEC publishes it, INEC's signed timetable for the 2027 general election and INEC's final list of governorship candidates in Bauchi State.

The statement named no candidate and no constituency. Two departures are on the public record. Blueprint reported that the NDC's Bauchi governorship candidate, Ibrahim Muhammad Kashim, resigned his party membership in a letter dated 16 October, addressed to the party's chairman in Bauchi Local Government Area, citing personal reasons. Reports also describe a group of legislative candidates received into the APC in Abuja by its National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, in late September. The counts differ: The Whistler gives 12 NDC candidates, nine for the House of Representatives and three for State Houses of Assembly; Premium Times gives six House candidates and three Assembly candidates drawn from both the NDC and the African Democratic Congress, and says their names were not made public.

INEC's record of the Bauchi race is a three-page final list headed "Governorship Election 2027 - Governorship Final List of Candidates", each page signed for the Secretary to the Commission, Rose Oriaran-Anthony. It carries 15 tickets. Row 9 reads "KASHIM IBRAHIM MUHAMMAD", NDC, aged 65, with "TATA ALHAJI", aged 53, as deputy governorship candidate. The Remarks column is empty. The file's own data record its creation on 10 October 2026, the date INEC's timetable set for publishing the governorship lists, and the copy Vero Record downloaded on 22 October was identical, byte for byte, to one saved on 10 October.

The Act sets out when a party may put a new name in place of one INEC has received. Section 33 reads: "A political party shall not be allowed to change or substitute its candidate whose name has been submitted under Section 29 of this Act, except in the case of death or withdrawal by the candidate." Its proviso adds that after a withdrawal or death the party "shall, within 14 days of the occurrence of the event, hold another primary election to produce and submit a new candidate to the Commission for the election concerned." The section names two events. Leaving the party is not one of them, and Vero Record found no provision in the 124-page Act that deals with a candidate who changes party after nomination.

Withdrawal has its own form. Under section 31 a candidate withdraws "by notice in writing signed by him together with a sworn affidavit delivered personally by the candidate to the political party that nominated him", and the party must convey it to INEC "not later than 90 days to the election." A resignation letter to a local party chairman, as Kashim's is described, is not on its face that notice. Whether any of the defectors has also signed a sworn withdrawal is not in any record Vero Record found.

INEC's timetable fixes the last day for the replacement the NDC describes. The Revised Timetable and Schedule of Activities for the 2027 General Election, signed by the INEC Chairman, Joash Amupitan, and dated 26 February 2026, lists as item 7 the "Last day for withdrawal by candidate(s)/replacement of withdrawn candidate(s) by Political Parties": 22nd August 2026 for the presidential and National Assembly elections and 19th September 2026 for governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections. The NDC statement came 59 days after the first date and 31 days after the second.

The Act's own 90-day limit gives later dates, and on those the picture splits by election. For the National Assembly poll on 16 January 2027 the 90th day before polling was Sunday 18 October, two days before the statement, so for a House of Representatives candidate who left the NDC, a withdrawal not delivered by then falls outside both the statutory date and INEC's. For the governorship and State Assembly polls on 6 February 2027 the statutory date is Sunday 8 November, 19 days after the statement. A Bauchi or State Assembly candidate who files a sworn withdrawal before then would, on the text of sections 31 and 33, open the door to a fresh primary, though INEC's timetable closed that door on 19 September. Which of the two dates binds was argued in court earlier this year; press reports say the Supreme Court ruled on related appeals on 24 September, but Vero Record has not obtained those judgments.

The word "immediately" meets a second gate. Section 82(1) requires every party to give INEC "at least 21 days' notice of any convention, congress, conference or meeting convened for the purpose of ... nominating candidates", and section 82(6) says that failure to give it "shall render the primaries, convention, congress, and conferences invalid." Notice given on Wednesday 21 October would allow such a meeting no earlier than Wednesday 11 November. The Act also prescribes how candidates are chosen: section 84(2) allows "direct primaries or consensus", and a congress has a role only on the consensus route, where section 87(3) has a "special convention or nomination congress" ratify a candidate after all cleared aspirants consent in writing.

The record supports the NDC on part of its statement. The Act does give a party a way to replace a candidate, and it does tie that to a fresh contest within 14 days. For the February elections the statutory window is still open until 8 November if a candidate withdraws in the form section 31 requires. Leaving a party is lawful, and nothing in the documents suggests wrongdoing by Kashim or by any candidate who moved. The NDC's further claim, that the APC bribed its candidates, rests on no document Vero Record has seen, and no court has made any such finding. Premium Times reported that the APC spokesman, Felix Morka, had not answered its questions on the allegation when it published.

What the documents establish is narrower than the statement. On the Act's wording a defection, without a sworn withdrawal delivered in time, does not let a party substitute its candidate, and INEC's published final list keeps the name it carries. Row 9 of the Bauchi list still reads KASHIM IBRAHIM MUHAMMAD for the NDC. For the legislative candidates in the 16 January election both the Act's date and INEC's had passed before the NDC spoke.

The documents do not establish who the other defectors are, which constituencies the NDC means, whether any of them filed a sworn withdrawal, or whether INEC has received any substitution request from the party. They do not establish what Kashim intends, or that the NDC cannot lawfully field a new Bauchi candidate if he withdraws before 8 November and a court holds that the statutory date governs.

We invite a response from the NDC's National Publicity Secretary, Osa Director, on which provision of the Electoral Act the party relies and which candidates and constituencies it means; from Ibrahim Muhammad Kashim on whether he has withdrawn his candidature; from the APC national secretariat on the NDC's allegation; and from INEC on whether it has received any withdrawal or substitution from the NDC since 22 August.

What this rests on

Grade A documents, all downloaded and read on 22 October 2026: (1) Electoral Act 2026 as published by INEC at inecnigeria.org/documents/Electoral-Act-2026.pdf (124 pages; byte-identical to the copy saved on 21 October): s.31 (PDF p.21), s.33 and proviso (p.22), s.77(4)-(6) (p.34), s.82(1) and (6) (p.37), s.84(2) (p.38), s.87(1) and (3) (pp.38-39); the words 'defect' and 'defection' do not occur in the Act's operative provisions (the only match is the heading of s.139, 'Certain defects not to invalidate election'). (2) INEC, Revised Timetable and Schedule of Activities for 2027 General Election, signed by Joash Amupitan, dated 26 February 2026, three page images posted on INEC's X account on 26 February 2026 (item 7 on p.2: 22nd August 2026 and 19th September 2026; item 9 on p.3: governorship lists 10th October 2026; item 14: elections 16th January and 6th February 2027). (3) INEC, Governorship Election 2027, Bauchi Final List of Candidates, 3 pages signed for Rose Oriaran-Anthony, 15 numbered tickets; row 9 on p.2: KASHIM IBRAHIM MUHAMMAD, NDC, 65, deputy TATA ALHAJI, 53, Remarks blank; file creation date 2026-10-10 15:05:01 UTC; MD5 identical to a copy saved on 10 October. Arithmetic: 22 August to 20 October 2026 = 9 (23 to 31 Aug) + 30 (Sep) + 20 (Oct) = 59 days. 19 September to 20 October = 11 (20 to 30 Sep) + 20 = 31 days. 16 January 2027 minus 90 days = 18 October 2026 (14 days 18 to 31 Oct + 30 + 31 + 15 days 1 to 15 Jan = 90); 18 to 20 October = 2 days. 6 February 2027 minus 90 days = 8 November 2026 (23 days 8 to 30 Nov + 31 + 31 + 5 days 1 to 5 Feb = 90); 20 October to 8 November = 11 + 8 = 19 days. 21 October + 21 days = 11 November (10 days 22 to 31 Oct + 11 days 1 to 11 Nov = 21). Weekdays checked by calendar: 20 Oct Tuesday, 16 Oct Friday, 18 Oct Sunday, 8 Nov Sunday, 11 Nov Wednesday. Grade B: Osa Director's statement as quoted by Premium Times and Vanguard (identical wording); Kashim's resignation letter as quoted by Blueprint; defector counts from The Whistler and Premium Times; Felix Morka's non-response from Premium Times; the 24 September Supreme Court rulings from press reports only.

What this does not establish

The names and constituencies of the defectors the NDC means; the counts differ between reports (12 NDC candidates in The Whistler, nine NDC and ADC candidates in Premium Times). Whether any defector, Kashim included, has delivered a sworn withdrawal under section 31, and whether INEC has received any substitution from the NDC. Which date binds for withdrawals, INEC's timetable or section 31; the Federal High Court, Court of Appeal and Supreme Court decisions on that question were not obtained. How section 33's 14-day primary sits with section 82's 21 days' notice; the Act does not say. Whether INEC's timetable has been revised since 26 February 2026; Vero Record found no later version. Any evidence for or against the NDC's bribery allegation. Vero Record has not seen the NDC statement itself and relies on Premium Times and Vanguard for its wording.