Lagos's annual inflation rose from 16.29 to 23.68 per cent in one month in NBS state tables, and 3.23 points of that came from a lower August 2025 base

The National Bureau of Statistics' Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, released in September, names Lagos as the state with the highest annual inflation rate that month, at 23.68 per cent, followed by Zamfara at 22.56 per cent and Enugu at 22.06 per cent. Sokoto (2.11 per cent), Kebbi (3.72 per cent) and Jigawa (3.81 per cent) recorded the lowest rates. The national headline rate was 15.39 per cent, down from 15.43 per cent in July.

The bureau's report for July 2026, released in August, ranked the states very differently. Its highest annual rates were in Adamawa (33.03 per cent), Yobe (25.21 per cent) and Anambra (23.99 per cent), and its lowest in Nasarawa (7.86 per cent), Kebbi (9.12 per cent) and Borno (9.12 per cent). Of the six states named at either end of the table in July, only Kebbi is named again in August.

The bureau's workbooks show how far individual rates moved in a month. Lagos rose from 16.29 per cent to 23.68 per cent, an increase of 7.39 percentage points. Sokoto fell from 16.09 per cent to 2.11 per cent, a fall of 13.98 points. Adamawa fell from 33.03 to 19.40 per cent, Yobe from 25.21 to 11.66 per cent and Anambra from 23.99 to 16.05 per cent.

In the July appendix, Lagos's all-items index stands at 126.3 for July 2025 and 146.9 for July 2026, with a month-on-month change of minus 0.1 per cent and an annual rate of 16.3 per cent. In the August appendix, the same index stands at 123.0 for August 2025, 146.9 for July 2026 and 152.2 for August 2026, with a monthly rise of 3.6 per cent and an annual rate of 23.7 per cent.

The annual rate compares each month with the same month a year earlier, so it moves when either month moves. Lagos's index in August 2025 (123.0361 in the bureau's workbook) was 2.61 per cent lower than in July 2025 (126.3379). Measured against the July 2025 figure instead, Lagos's August 2026 index of 152.1712 would give a rate of 20.45 per cent. On that calculation, about 4.16 of the 7.39-point rise comes from the 3.58 per cent price increase recorded in August 2026, and about 3.23 points from the lower starting point a year earlier.

Sokoto shows the reverse. Its index rose from 120.5479 in July 2025 to 128.4726 in August 2025, an increase of 6.57 per cent, and then fell 6.26 per cent in August 2026, from 139.9495 to 131.1878. Against the July 2025 figure, the August 2026 index would give 8.83 per cent. About 7.26 points of Sokoto's 13.98-point fall therefore come from the August 2026 decline and about 6.72 points from the higher base.

On the numbers themselves, the record supports the bureau. The all-items index of 146.3 against 126.78649 for August 2025 gives 15.39 per cent, and against 145.268506 for July 2026 gives 0.71 per cent, as the report states on page 6. All 24 state figures named in the August state profile on page 16, twelve for all items and twelve for food, match Table 5 of the bureau's August workbook when rounded to two decimals.

The bureau also warns readers about the rankings it publishes. Page 16 of both reports says the weight given to a food or non-food item may differ from state to state, "making interstate comparisons of consumption baskets inadvisable and potentially misleading". Table 5 of the workbook carries a similar note that indices may not be used for inter-state price comparison.

Monthly movements at state level were large in both directions. Anambra's index rose 9.95 per cent in July and fell 8.83 per cent in August. Adamawa rose 12.48 per cent in July and fell 5.96 per cent in August. In August, Rivers recorded the highest monthly rise, 6.92 per cent, and Anambra, Bauchi (minus 7.13 per cent) and Borno (minus 7.09 per cent) the lowest. The August report gives reasons for the national food movement, naming items such as palm oil, pepper and onions, but gives no state-by-state explanation.

Sokoto's food figures sit alongside its low headline rate. The August appendix records food prices in Sokoto 21.3 per cent higher than a year earlier while its all-items index is 2.1 per cent higher. The report does not publish Sokoto's non-food index or its state weights, so how those two figures fit together cannot be checked from the report.

The documents establish what the bureau published and that its stated rates follow from its own indices. They do not show why the 2025 state indices moved as they did between July and August, which accounts for a large part of the swings in Lagos and Sokoto, and they do not allow a check of the prices collected in the field. The September 2026 report is due in October.

What this rests on

Two NBS Consumer Price Index releases downloaded on 6 October 2026 from the bureau's microdata catalogue (catalog 154): the August 2026 package (CPI_AUGUST_2026_final_.pdf, 21 pages, with cpi_1New_August2026_.xlsx) and the July 2026 package (CPI_JULY_2026.pdf, 21 pages, with cpi_1New_July2026.xlsx). Arithmetic from workbook Tables 2 and 5: Lagos 152.1712/123.0361 = 1.2368, 23.68%; July 146.9164/126.3379 = 1.1629, 16.29%; 23.68 - 16.29 = 7.39 points. Base move 123.0361/126.3379 = 0.9739, minus 2.61%. Hypothetical 152.1712/126.3379 = 1.2045, 20.45%; 20.45 - 16.29 = 4.16 and 23.68 - 20.45 = 3.23; 4.16 + 3.23 = 7.39. August 2026 monthly 152.1712/146.9164 = 1.0358, 3.58%. Sokoto 131.1878/128.4726 = 1.0211, 2.11%; July 16.09%; 16.09 - 2.11 = 13.98. Base 128.4726/120.5479 = 1.0657, 6.57%. Monthly 131.1878/139.9495 = 0.9374, minus 6.26%. Hypothetical 131.1878/120.5479 = 1.0883, 8.83%; 16.09 - 8.83 = 7.26 and 8.83 - 2.11 = 6.72; 7.26 + 6.72 = 13.98. National 146.3/126.78649 = 1.1539, 15.39%; 146.3/145.268506 = 1.0071, 0.71%. Adamawa 33.03 to 19.40, Yobe 25.21 to 11.66, Anambra 23.99 to 16.05 from the two workbooks. All 24 state rates named on page 16 of the August report checked against August Table 5.

What this does not establish

Why the 2025 state indices for Lagos fell and for Sokoto rose between July and August 2025; whether price collection or state samples changed between months; the field prices behind any state index; the state weights, which the reports do not publish; how Sokoto's 21.3 per cent food rate and 2.1 per cent all-items rate reconcile. Nothing here suggests the figures were altered; the swings follow arithmetically from the bureau's own published indices.