Otti says Abia cut its debt from N147.2bn to N48.6bn. DMO tables show domestic debt down N93.85bn and foreign loans up $41.22m

Alex Otti, the Labour Party governor of Abia State, who is seeking a second term, told his monthly media chat in Umuahia that the Debt Management Office (DMO) had put the state's debt at N147.2 billion in the second quarter of 2023, when he took office, and at N48.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026. "This means that more than 90 billion have been paid off," he said, according to reports published on 31 October. Vero Record set his figures against the DMO's own quarterly tables for the 36 states. The end figure is exact: the DMO records Abia's domestic debt at N48,625,030,731.14 on 30 June 2026. The starting figure is not: the DMO's table for 30 June 2023 gives N142,470,717,702.46, about N4.73 billion less than he said. On the DMO's numbers the fall is N93.85 billion, so his claim that more than N90 billion was paid off holds. Both numbers, however, measure only what Abia owes at home. The DMO's foreign debt tables show the state's external loans rising from $92.33 million to $133.55 million over the same three years.

Mr Otti spoke at the October edition of his media chat, "Dr Alex Otti Speaks to Abians", at the Michael Okpara Auditorium on a Friday night; reports of it appeared in Blueprint, The Sun, Champion and other outlets on 31 October. Besides the remark on repayments, the reports quote him as saying "So far, there's no direct borrowing by the government", that "The earlier figure excluded some liabilities, such as pension and salary arrears", and "We will borrow for regenerative projects, at the right time". They report, without quoting him directly, that he put a rise in the state's foreign loans down to drawdowns on existing multilateral facilities, naming the Abia State Integrated Infrastructure Development Project and the Rural Access and Agricultural Marketing Project. Vero Record did not hear a recording of the chat and relies on these published accounts.

The DMO publishes two tables for every state each quarter. One gives domestic debt in naira; its note says it is "generated from the signed-off Reports received from the 36 States of the Federation and the FCT". The other gives external debt in US dollars, by type of lender. Vero Record downloaded both tables for June 2023 and June 2026 from dmo.gov.ng, together with tables for the quarters in between, and the DMO's national summaries for June 2023 and June 2026, which state the exchange rates it uses.

On domestic debt the record largely supports the governor. Abia's line fell from N142,470,717,702.46 in June 2023 to N48,625,030,731.14 in June 2026, a reduction of N93,845,686,971.32, or 65.9 per cent. His own figures give a fall of N98.6 billion, or 67.0 per cent. None of the four DMO domestic tables for 2023 that Vero Record read carries N147.2 billion for Abia: they show N99.54 billion in March, N142.47 billion in June, N138.78 billion in September and N138.64 billion in December. The reports do not say where his starting figure came from.

Almost all of the fall came in the two years to June 2025. The DMO tables put Abia's domestic debt at N97.24 billion in June 2024 and N48.58 billion in June 2025. Since then the line has barely moved: N48.41 billion in December 2025 and N48.63 billion in June 2026, a rise of N41.47 million over the last twelve months. That pattern fits his statement that the government has taken on no new direct borrowing, at least at home. It also means the domestic figure he cites for 2026 is within N0.21 billion of the one the DMO had already published for the end of 2025.

The 2023 starting point itself rose sharply in the quarter of the handover. The March 2023 table gives Abia N99,541,843,513.89; the June 2023 table, three months later, gives N142,470,717,702.46, an increase of N42,928,874,188.57. That quarter covers the last two months of the previous administration and the first month of Mr Otti's, who was sworn in on 29 May 2023. The tables do not say what was added or on which date. The governor's remark that "the earlier figure excluded some liabilities, such as pension and salary arrears" may refer to this, or to the larger inherited debt of about N191 billion he gave in an earlier interview reported by Arise News; the published accounts do not make clear which.

The external tables tell a different story. On 30 June 2023 the DMO recorded Abia's foreign debt as $88,510,883.83 owed to multilateral lenders and $3,817,800.00 to the French development agency, AFD, a total of $92,328,683.83. On 30 June 2026 it recorded $133,547,870.00, all of it multilateral. That is a rise of $41,219,186.17, or 44.6 per cent. The rise was gradual at first ($89.05 million in December 2023, $97.28 million in June 2024, $101.48 million in December 2024, $105.23 million in June 2025 and $107.16 million in December 2025) and then steep: $26.38 million of it came in the first six months of 2026. The AFD line no longer appears in Abia's row from June 2025.

The record supports the governor's account of where the foreign loans come from, as far as it goes. On 30 June 2023, 32 days after he took office, the African Development Bank announced that its board had approved a $115 million loan to Abia, $100 million from the Bank and $15 million from the Canada-African Development Bank Climate Fund, to rehabilitate 248.46 km of roads in Umuahia and Aba, control erosion and prepare solid waste projects. The release puts the project's total cost at $263.80 million, including a $125 million co-financing loan from the Islamic Development Bank and $23.80 million of counterpart funding from the state. It does not say when the loan was negotiated. The DMO table does not name the individual lenders behind Abia's $133.55 million, so the documents cannot show how much of the $41.22 million rise is this project and how much is the rural roads programme or anything else. Whether drawing on a loan approved in a governor's first month counts as "direct borrowing" is a question of definition that the documents do not settle.

The currency matters too. The DMO converts external debt at the Central Bank's official rate: N770.38 to the dollar on 30 June 2023 and N1,379.1842 on 30 June 2026, according to its national summaries. At those rates Abia's foreign debt was worth N71.13 billion in 2023 and N184.19 billion in 2026. Added to the domestic figures, the state's total debt on the DMO's records was N213.60 billion in June 2023 and N232.81 billion in June 2026, N19.21 billion higher. Of the N113.06 billion rise in the naira value of the foreign debt, N56.21 billion is the fall of the naira applied to the dollars Abia already owed in 2023, and N56.85 billion is the new dollars. Measured at the 2026 rate throughout, the total fell by N37.00 billion; measured in dollars, it fell from $277.26 million to $168.80 million. No state sets the exchange rate, and multilateral loans of this kind usually run for decades at low interest, but they are repaid in dollars.

Several things the documents do not establish. The DMO tables are stocks at a date, not records of payments, so they do not show how the N93.85 billion reduction was achieved, whether by cash repayment, refinancing, write-offs or reclassification. They do not explain the N42.93 billion added between March and June 2023. Pension and salary arrears, which the governor says were left out of the earlier figure, do not appear in the DMO's domestic tables, so his wider claims about them could not be checked here. The June 2023 external table is marked "Provisional", and the June 2026 table carries blank signature lines. Vero Record also did not verify the reported federal approval of the Islamic Development Bank loan, or whether any of it has been drawn. Nothing in this report suggests wrongdoing by anyone.

Set side by side, the DMO's own tables support Governor Otti on the figure he gives for 2026 and on his statement that more than N90 billion of the state's debt has been cleared since he took office. They put the 2023 starting point at N142.47 billion rather than N147.2 billion. His comparison counts domestic debt only. Over the same period Abia's foreign loans grew by $41.22 million, all of it owed to multilateral lenders and, by his account, for roads, so that in naira the state's total recorded debt is N19.21 billion higher than when he arrived, largely because the naira lost almost half its value against the dollar.

What this rests on

Debt Management Office, Domestic Debt Data for the 36 States of the Federation and the FCT as at June 30, 2023 (p.1, Abia row: N142,470,717,702.46) and as at June 30, 2026 (p.1, Abia row: N48,625,030,731.14); the same tables for March 31, 2023 (N99,541,843,513.89), September 30, 2023 (N138,779,101,794.33), December 31, 2023 (N138,638,007,432.32), June 30, 2024 (N97,241,994,249.15), June 30, 2025 (N48,583,564,446.34) and December 31, 2025 (N48,410,403,758.61). DMO, States, FCT and Federal Governments' External Debt Stock as at June 30, 2023 (p.1, Abia: multilateral $88,510,883.83 + AFD $3,817,800.00 = $92,328,683.83) and as at June 30, 2026 (p.1, Abia: $133,547,870.00), with the December 2023 ($85,183,639.22 + $3,870,300.08 = $89,053,939.30), June 2024 ($93,538,421.74 + $3,745,350.03 = $97,283,771.77), December 2024 ($97,839,245.89 + $3,635,799.94 = $101,475,045.83), June 2025 ($105,229,454.09) and December 2025 ($107,163,236.46) tables. DMO, Nigeria's Total Public Debt Portfolio as at June 30, 2023 (note ii: N770.38 per dollar) and as at June 30, 2026 (note: N1,379.1842 per dollar). African Development Bank press release, 30 June 2023 (Wayback Machine copy captured 31 August 2026). All downloaded and read on 2 November 2026. Arithmetic: domestic fall N142,470,717,702.46 - N48,625,030,731.14 = N93,845,686,971.32; / N142,470,717,702.46 = 65.9%. Governor's figures: N147.2bn - N48.6bn = N98.6bn; / N147.2bn = 67.0%. Gap in starting figure: N147.2bn - N142.47bn = N4.73bn. Handover quarter: N142,470,717,702.46 - N99,541,843,513.89 = N42,928,874,188.57. Last twelve months: N48,625,030,731.14 - N48,583,564,446.34 = N41,466,284.80; since December 2025: N48,625,030,731.14 - N48,410,403,758.61 = N214,626,972.53. External rise: $133,547,870.00 - $92,328,683.83 = $41,219,186.17; / $92,328,683.83 = 44.6%. First half of 2026: $133,547,870.00 - $107,163,236.46 = $26,384,633.54. Naira values: $92,328,683.83 x 770.38 = N71.13bn; $133,547,870.00 x 1,379.1842 = N184.19bn. Totals: N142.47bn + N71.13bn = N213.60bn; N48.63bn + N184.19bn = N232.81bn; difference N19.21bn. Split of the N113.06bn rise in foreign debt in naira: $92,328,683.83 x (1,379.1842 - 770.38) = N56.21bn exchange effect; $41,219,186.17 x 1,379.1842 = N56.85bn new dollars; N56.21bn + N56.85bn = N113.06bn = N184.19bn - N71.13bn. At the 2026 rate throughout: 2023 total N142.47bn + ($92,328,683.83 x 1,379.1842 = N127.34bn) = N269.81bn, against N232.81bn, a fall of N37.00bn. In dollars: N142.47bn / 770.38 = $184.94m, + $92.33m = $277.26m; N48.63bn / 1,379.1842 = $35.26m, + $133.55m = $168.80m. Naira per dollar: 770.38 / 1,379.1842 = 0.559, a fall of 44.1 per cent in the naira's dollar value. Days: 29 May 2023 to 30 June 2023 = 2 days left in May + 30 in June = 32 days.

What this does not establish

Where the governor's N147.2 billion starting figure comes from; no DMO domestic table for 2023 that we read carries it. How the N93.85 billion fall in domestic debt was achieved (cash repayment, refinancing, write-off or reclassification); the DMO tables record stocks, not payments. What was added to Abia's domestic debt between March and June 2023, and on which side of the 29 May handover. Which lenders make up the $133.55 million of external debt, and how much of the $41.22 million rise is the African Development Bank roads project, the rural roads programme or other facilities. When the African Development Bank loan was negotiated. Whether the Islamic Development Bank's $125 million co-financing has received federal approval or been drawn. The size of pension and salary arrears, which are outside the DMO tables. Whether the June 2026 external figures will be revised; the 2023 table is marked provisional and the 2026 one carries blank signature lines. The governor's exact words beyond those quoted in the published reports; we did not hear a recording. Nothing in this report suggests wrongdoing by anyone.