NLNG's own table puts NNPC's dividends since 2004 at $21.51bn; shared like FAAC money at today's rate, that is N212.65bn a state, inside Makinde's range

Oyo's governor, Seyi Makinde, said on 16 October that every state was due about N250 billion from Nigeria LNG dividends once consultants had reconciled the figures, and that the federal government would not pay until after the 2027 election. Nigeria LNG's own Facts and Figures 2024 lists every dividend it paid to NNPC, the Federation's 49 per cent shareholder, from 1999 to 2023. The column adds to US$21,513,447,092.88. Converted at the Central Bank's central rate for 16 October and split with the sharing formula printed in the Accountant-General's June 2026 FAAC table, that sum comes to N212.65 billion for the average state, inside the N200 billion to N250 billion range Makinde gave. A figure of that size is not one year's dividend. It is close to every dividend Nigeria LNG has paid NNPC since 2004, and two thirds of that money was paid before 2015.

Makinde spoke at a consultation on Oyo's 2027 budget at the University of Ibadan's International Conference Centre. Sahara Reporters quoted him as saying: "They reconciled the figures, and each state of the federation would get more money, about N250 billion," and "Now they say they are not going to pay that money until after the election." The same report says he gave a range of N200 billion to N250 billion. Some outlets turned this into N9 trillion for the 36 states, which is 36 x N250 billion. A post on X quoted in the Sahara Reporters article attributes another line to him: "Nigeria LNG Limited paid dividends to the Federal Government, which went into the Federation Account." Vero Record found no published response from the federal government in the reports it checked up to the morning of 17 October.

The Nigeria LNG document is the company's Facts and Figures 2024, the edition linked from its website on 17 October. Page 54 sets out "a summary of NLNG Financials from 1999 - 2023", with a column headed "Dividend - NNPC (Net of WHT)". The column is empty from 1999 to 2003. The first payment, US$278,860,715.00, is in 2004. The largest are US$2,768,990,000.00 in 2012, US$2,613,170,000.00 in 2008 and US$2,509,780,000.00 in 2011. The last three years read US$722,436,140.42 for 2021, US$1,102,564,271.09 for 2022 and US$820,281,774.22 for 2023. The twenty yearly figures add to US$21,513,447,092.87, one cent off the printed total of US$21,513,447,092.88. Page 22 of the same document makes the same point a second way: Nigeria LNG "has paid dividends of over USD44 billion out of which 49 percent went to the Federal Government of Nigeria", and 49 per cent of US$44 billion is US$21.56 billion.

The sum depends on how the dollars are turned into naira and how the naira is shared, and both steps can be checked. The Central Bank's published central rate for the US dollar on 16 October 2026 was N1,331.7582. At that rate US$21,513,447,092.88 is N28.65 trillion. The Accountant-General's disbursement table for June 2026, the latest the office has published, gives the statutory shares as N749,801,586,689.97 for the federal government, N380,309,384,896.66 for the states and N293,202,594,643.38 for local councils. Those three add to N1,423,313,566,230.01, and the states' line is 26.72 per cent of it (the other two are 52.68 and 20.60 per cent). The states' 26.72 per cent of N28.65 trillion is N7.66 trillion, and N7.66 trillion divided by 36 is N212.65 billion.

That result sits inside Makinde's range, but it does not reach N250 billion for every state. Reaching N250 billion a state, or N9 trillion in all, at the same rate and formula would take US$25.29 billion of dividends, US$3.78 billion more than the Nigeria LNG table records to the end of 2023. N200 billion a state would take US$20.23 billion, which the table does exceed. Dividends for 2024 and 2025 are not in the 2024 edition. ThisDay reported on 29 July 2026 that Nigeria LNG's 2026 Facts and Figures put dividends to all shareholders at US$47.2 billion. That edition was not on the company's website for Vero Record to read. If the figure is right, 49 per cent of it is US$23.13 billion, which gives N228.61 billion for the average state on the same method. If the 13 per cent derivation share were taken out first, as it is for mineral revenue, the average on the 2004 to 2023 total would fall to N185.01 billion.

The conversion carries most of the weight. Nigeria LNG paid these dividends in dollars over twenty years, at exchange rates far below N1,331.7582. Of the US$21,513,447,092.88, US$14,304,855,351.73, or 66.49 per cent, was paid from 2004 to 2014. Another US$6,388,309,966.92, or 29.69 per cent, was paid from 2015 to 2022, and US$820,281,774.22, or 3.81 per cent, in 2023. The three periods add back to US$21,513,447,092.87. A per-state figure in the low hundreds of billions only appears when two decades of dollars are counted together and valued at today's rate. Makinde did not say what rate or which years the consultants used, and the documents do not say either.

The same arithmetic applied to the most recent year in the table gives a far smaller number. The 2023 dividend of US$820,281,774.22 is N1.09 trillion at the 16 October rate. The states' 26.72 per cent of that is N291.89 billion, or N8.11 billion for the average state. The table does not divide 2023 into the months before and after President Tinubu took office on 29 May. On the documents, the money behind a N200 billion to N250 billion figure was mostly paid to NNPC under earlier administrations.

Where the money went is a matter for a second record. NEITI's Oil and Gas Industry Audit 2023, the final report dated 26 September 2024, says in section 5.2 on page 67 that of the revenue received in 2023, "US$20.739billion (67.2%) was transferred into the Federation Account". It then says that "US$849.314 million was received as NLNG dividend by NNPCL on behalf of the Federation and paid into NNPCL designated account". For 2023 at least, the audit records the dividend as Federation money paid into an NNPC account rather than the Federation Account. That supports Makinde's wider point that the dividends belong to the Federation and were not shared through FAAC. It does not support the line attributed to him in the X post, that the dividends "went into the Federation Account".

Page 112 of the NEITI report covers the same payments in its follow-up table. It says payments from Nigeria LNG "received by NNPCL" were "subsequently transferred to designated NLNG accounts", and that "dividends and interest earned by the Federation for the years 2022 and 2023 totaling US$ 1.113 billion and US$ 849.314 million were paid, contrasting with the US$722.60 million payment made in 2021". NEITI found that Nigeria LNG's obligations to the Federation "were met without undue delays", so the audit raises no question about Nigeria LNG itself. Its recommendation is addressed to NNPC: "The NNPC Limited should ensure continuous accountability of NLNG payments received on behalf the government."

The two documents agree closely but not exactly. For 2021 NEITI has US$722.60 million and Nigeria LNG US$722,436,140.42, a difference of about US$0.16 million. For 2022 the figures are US$1.113 billion and US$1,102,564,271.09, about US$10.44 million apart. For 2023 they are US$849.314 million and US$820,281,774.22, US$29.03 million apart. NEITI counts "dividends and interest", while Nigeria LNG's column is net of withholding tax, which could account for the gaps. Neither document reconciles them.

The Accountant-General's monthly disbursement tables for January to June 2026 contain no line for Nigeria LNG dividends. Vero Record searched the text of all six documents for the words LNG and dividend and found neither. On the published record, no Nigeria LNG dividend was shared among the federal government, states and councils through FAAC in the first half of 2026.

The documents leave the main questions open. They do not show the reconciliation Makinde described, who carried it out, what amount it reached, which years it covered or what exchange rate it used. They do not show any decision to pay after the 2027 election, or say whether past dividends held in NNPC's designated accounts were spent, invested or are still held. On scale, the record supports Makinde: two decades of Nigeria LNG dividends, valued today and shared under the FAAC formula, come to N212.65 billion for the average state. It also shows that the dividend was paid into an NNPC account, not the Federation Account, in 2023, and that most of the money behind his figure was paid before the present government took office.

What this rests on

Four primary records, all downloaded and read for this report. (1) Nigeria LNG Limited, Facts and Figures 2024 (102 pages, file 2024_NLNG_FACTS_FIGURESB_compressed.pdf, linked from nlng.com on 17 October 2026), page 54, column Dividend - NNPC (Net of WHT), and page 22. Re-addition of the column, 2004 to 2023: 278,860,715.00 + 57,425,460.17 + 332,979,540.83 + 842,956,858.80 + 2,613,170,000.00 + 848,680,000.00 + 1,401,400,000.00 + 2,509,780,000.00 + 2,768,990,000.00 + 1,260,704,340.00 + 1,389,908,436.93 + 1,043,764,965.12 + 356,126,898.44 + 798,140,840.45 + 904,498,502.96 + 915,645,702.33 + 545,132,646.11 + 722,436,140.42 + 1,102,564,271.09 + 820,281,774.22 = US$21,513,447,092.87 (printed total US$21,513,447,092.88). Cross-check: 49% x US$44bn = US$21.56bn. Periods: 2004 to 2014 = US$14,304,855,351.73 (66.49%); 2015 to 2022 = US$6,388,309,966.92 (29.69%); 2023 = US$820,281,774.22 (3.81%); 14,304,855,351.73 + 6,388,309,966.92 + 820,281,774.22 = 21,513,447,092.87. (2) Central Bank of Nigeria exchange-rate data, US DOLLAR, ratedate 2026-10-16, central rate N1,331.7582 (buying 1,331.2582, selling 1,332.2582). US$21,513,447,092.88 x 1,331.7582 = N28,650,709,576,209.10. (3) Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Disbursement June 2026, page 1, statutory column: FGN 749,801,586,689.97 + States 380,309,384,896.66 + LGCs 293,202,594,643.38 = N1,423,313,566,230.01; States = 26.72%, FGN = 52.68%, LGCs = 20.60%. States' share: 28,650,709,576,209.10 x 26.72% = N7,655,469,598,763.10; / 36 = N212,651,933,298.97. Scenarios on the same rate and formula: N250bn x 36 = N9tn requires 9,000,000,000,000 / 0.2672 / 1,331.7582 = US$25,291,854,580.31, which is US$3,778,407,487.43 above the table total; N200bn a state requires US$20,233,483,664.25; with 13% derivation deducted first, 212.65bn x 0.87 = N185.01bn; on ThisDay's reported US$47.2bn, 49% = US$23.128bn, x 1,331.7582 x 26.72% / 36 = N228.61bn. 2023 alone: 820,281,774.22 x 1,331.7582 = N1,092,416,979,128.03; x 26.72% = N291,893,816,823.01; / 36 = N8,108,161,578.42. The January to June 2026 disbursement documents were searched in full text for 'LNG' and 'dividend', with no match in any of the six. (4) NEITI, Final Report, Oil and Gas Industry Audit 2023 (137 pages, dated 26 September 2024), section 5.2 on page 67, Table 51 on page 69 (NLNG Dividend 849,314 and 1,113,006, US$ thousands) and item 10 on page 112. Differences against Nigeria LNG's net figures: 2021: 722.60m - 722.436m = US$0.164m; 2022: 1,113.006m - 1,102.564m = US$10.442m; 2023: 849.314m - 820.282m = US$29.032m. Makinde's words are attributed to Sahara Reporters' report of 16 October 2026; the line about the Federation Account is from an X post that report quotes.

What this does not establish

The reconciliation Makinde described: who carried it out, what total it reached, which years it covered, what exchange rate it used and whether it allowed for derivation. Whether the federal government has decided to delay any payment until after the 2027 election; no document seen records such a decision and Vero Record found no published federal response. Whether states are legally entitled to a share of Nigeria LNG dividends, and on what formula. What happened to the dividends after they were paid into NNPC's designated accounts, including whether any were spent, invested, used to settle obligations or are still held; the NEITI audit records the 2023 account but not later use of the money. Dividends for 2024 to 2026, which are not in the 2024 Facts and Figures; the US$47.2 billion total is from a press report of the 2026 edition, which Vero Record could not obtain. Why NEITI's yearly figures differ from Nigeria LNG's net-of-tax figures. Each state's actual share, which would vary under the horizontal sharing formula; N212.65 billion is an average. Nothing in the documents suggests wrongdoing by anyone, and none is alleged.