Lagos's audited accounts put its end-2025 foreign debt at $1.327bn, $153.41m above the DMO's table, and name five loans the DMO had not captured

Lagos State's audited financial statements for 2025, signed by the Accountant-General, Abiodun Muritala, and certified by the State Auditor-General, Muyiwa Adetola, as giving "a true and fair view" on 24 February 2026, put the state's foreign debt at $1,327,464,380.67 on 31 December 2025. The Debt Management Office's table of state external debt at the same date gives Lagos $1,174,058,878.74. The state's own figure is $153,405,501.93 higher, or 13.07 per cent more than the federal record. The accounts explain the difference themselves, on page 64: "The External Loan Balance in the books of LASG exceeds the carrying amount in the books of DMO, Abuja, due to the recognition of some drawdowns by LASG that have yet to be captured by DMO Abuja."

Directly below that sentence the accounts list five "Facilities yet to be captured in DMO's Records": SABER at $6,606,276.44; NG-CARES, recorded in naira at N10,670,227,098.15 and shown as $7,434,366.36; Malaria Impact at $16,184,393.40; the Lagos Transport Master Plan at 90,000,000 euros, or $105,803,997.00; and Omi-Eko at 10,000,000 euros, or $11,756,000.00. Together they come to $147,785,033.20, or N212,109,517,799.76. That is 96.34 per cent of the gap between the two records. The remaining $5,620,468.73, about N8.07bn at the year-end rate, is not accounted for by the list.

The two records use the same exchange rate. The accounts translate their dollar total at N1,435.2571, and the debt office's portfolio report for 31 December 2025 says it used the Central Bank's official rate of N1,435.2571 to convert external debt. In naira, the accounts carry external loans of N1,905,252,677,348.21; the debt office's $1,174,058,878.74 is N1,685,076,341,529.62 at that rate. The difference is N220.18bn. On the debt office's own figures Lagos holds 20.65 per cent of the $5,684,917,023.90 of external debt it lists for the 36 states and the FCT, more than any other state.

The largest of the five items is not a new loan. The schedule of multilateral loans on page 120 lists three Lagos State Transport Master Plan facilities granted in euros, of 9,529,701, 35,000,000 and 90,000,000. For the 90 million euro facility it shows an outstanding balance at 31 December 2024 of $93,491,999, or N143,539,911,000, no drawdown recorded for 2025, interest paid in 2025 of 2,705,800 euros, or N4,646,819,110, and an end-2025 balance of $105,803,997, or N151,855,938,000. By the state's own record, the loan was on its books a year before the debt office's December 2025 table, and Lagos paid interest on it during the year. The schedule does not name the lender for that row, and it sits on page 120, after the pages 16 to 119 that the audit certificate covers.

The other four items are smaller and more recent. The schedule shows no balance for Omi-Eko at the end of 2024 and a drawdown in 2025 of 10,000,000 euros, or N16,741,697,000. The malaria programme, listed as the Immunization Plus and Malaria Progress by Accelerating Coverage and Transforming Services (IMPACT) Project, rose from $1,073,837 to $16,184,393 after a drawdown of $15,110,556, or N22,652,829,689. SABER, the State Action on Business Enabling Reforms Program-for-Results Operation, rose from $4,020,940 to $6,606,276 after a drawdown of $2,585,336. The audit certificate describes SABER as "performance-based loan financing from Federal Government of Nigeria". NG-CARES appears only in the list on page 64, recorded in naira.

The accounts' own totals agree with each other once NG-CARES is added. The 30 rows of the schedule on page 120 add to $1,320,030,014 and N1,894,582,450,250. Adding the NG-CARES amounts, $7,434,366.36 and N10,670,227,098.15, gives $1,327,464,380.36 and N1,905,252,677,348.15, the debt schedule's totals to within 31 cents and 6 kobo. The narrative note on page 54, which counts "Thirty-One (31) loan facilities", gives their outstanding principal as "about 1.321 billion dollars". That is close to the 30-row total of $1,320,030,014, and $6,464,380.67 below the $1,327,464,380.67 the accounts state on page 64.

The gap did not open in 2025. The accounts carry external loans of N1,961,782,254,517.10 at 31 December 2024. At the Central Bank rate the debt office used for that date, N1,535.3176 to the dollar, that is $1,277,769,664.41, which is $108,536,355.72 above the $1,169,233,308.69 the debt office listed for Lagos at the end of 2024. The accounts do not state a 2024 dollar total, so that conversion is Vero Record's; the 90 million euro facility alone was carried at $93,491,999 on that date.

Six months later the federal figure moved towards the state's. The debt office's table for 30 June 2026 puts Lagos's external debt at $1,267,780,990.92. Its bilateral column, whose heading lists China Exim Bank, JICA, India, KfW, IsDB and AFD, rose from $112,160,035.11 to $213,555,219.78, an increase of $101,395,184.67, while multilateral debt fell by $7,673,072.49 to $1,054,225,771.14. The rise in the bilateral column is close to the $105,803,997 the accounts give for the 90 million euro facility, but the table names no loans, so it does not show whether that facility, or any of the five, has now been captured.

On domestic debt the two records come close to agreeing. The debt office's table for 31 December 2025, which it says is generated from the states' signed-off submissions, gives Lagos N1,219,458,755,148.34. The debt schedule on page 64 lists bank loans of N595,951,152,712.57, bonds of N578,564,811,688.30, contractor arrears of N43,943,144,221.49 and judgement debt of N1,846,300,174.36. Bank loans, bonds and contractor arrears add to N1,218,459,108,622.36, N999,646,525.98 below the federal figure; adding the judgement debt gives N1,220,305,408,796.72, N846,653,648.38 above it. The federal table gives one number per state, so it does not show which of these items it includes. On page 64 the accounts note that contractor arrears are carried in payables, not borrowings.

The deductions the federation makes to service Lagos's foreign loans agree to the kobo. The accounts' monthly schedule on page 63 records N92,802,036,413 deducted at source from the state's statutory allocation in 2025. Table III of the Accountant-General of the Federation's twelve disbursement reports for January to December 2025 shows external debt deductions from Lagos of N6,931,766,965.62 in January, N8,530,201,484.76 in each month from February to July and N6,937,812,107.78 in each month from August to December, which add to N92,802,036,413.08. Value added tax agrees as closely in eleven of the twelve months: the gross VAT the accounts record each month matches the federal row to within 46 kobo.

September is the exception. For that month the accounts record gross VAT of N56,726,878,921, of which N7,676,422,631 was deducted and N49,050,456,290 received. The federal row for Lagos in the September 2025 report, which shared August's revenue, shows gross VAT of N50,131,884,334.66, the same deduction of N7,676,422,630.91 and net VAT of N42,455,461,703.75. The accounts' figure is N6,594,994,586.34 higher, and it carries the year's VAT total to N565,174,711,639, against N558,579,717,052.96 in the twelve federal rows. The figure of N6,594,994,586 does not appear in any of the twelve federal reports, and the accounts do not say what the extra amount was.

Neither document suggests that money is missing, and none is alleged. The external debt difference is one the state discloses openly, with its own list of reasons, and on the state's account the shortfall lies in the federal record rather than in its own. What the two records establish is that, for the end of 2025, the debt office's published figure for Nigeria's most indebted state on foreign loans was $153.41m lower than the figure in that state's audited accounts. Neither the Lagos State Government nor the Debt Management Office was asked for comment before publication; the figures above are their own, set against each other.

What this rests on

Lagos State Government, Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 (136 pages, file Y2025_LASG_FAAC_Financial_Statement.pdf on the website of the Lagos State Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget, last modified 30 July 2026), downloaded and read on 3 November 2026: audit certificate and special opinion pp.3 to 4 (signed by M. J. Adetola, State Auditor-General, 24 February 2026), Accountant-General's responsibilities p.5, Note 1 p.23, Note 40 pp.53 to 54, monthly FAAC schedules p.63, debts control schedule p.64, schedule of multilateral loans p.120. Debt Management Office: States, FCT and Federal Governments' External Debt Stock as at 31 December 2025, 31 December 2024 and 30 June 2026; States and FCT Domestic Debt Stock as at 31 December 2025; Nigeria's Total Public Debt Portfolio as at 31 December 2025 (exchange rate note); FGN Domestic Debt Stock by Instrument as at 31 December 2024 (exchange rate note). Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, Table III of the twelve FAAC disbursement reports for January to December 2025, Lagos row. Arithmetic re-done: external gap 1,327,464,380.67 - 1,174,058,878.74 = 153,405,501.93 (13.07 per cent of the federal figure); DMO row 1,061,898,843.63 + 112,160,035.11 = 1,174,058,878.74. Five facilities 6,606,276.44 + 7,434,366.36 + 16,184,393.40 + 105,803,997.00 + 11,756,000.00 = 147,785,033.20 (96.34 per cent of the gap); naira 9,481,705,165.07 + 10,670,227,098.15 + 23,228,765,536.54 + 151,855,938,000.00 + 16,872,882,000.00 = 212,109,517,799.76; residual 153,405,501.93 - 147,785,033.20 = 5,620,468.73, x 1,435.2571 = N8,066,817,650. DMO figure x 1,435.2571 = N1,685,076,341,529.62; N1,905,252,677,348.21 - N1,685,076,341,529.62 = N220,176,335,818.59. Lagos share 1,174,058,878.74 / 5,684,917,023.90 = 20.65 per cent. Euro conversions 105,803,997 / 90,000,000 = 1.1756 and 11,756,000 / 10,000,000 = 1.1756. Schedule plus NG-CARES: 1,320,030,014 + 7,434,366.36 = 1,327,464,380.36; 1,894,582,450,250 + 10,670,227,098.15 = 1,905,252,677,348.15. Narrative 1,327,464,380.67 - 1,321,000,000 = 6,464,380.67. External loan movement 1,961,782,254,517.10 + 43,892,217,966.24 - 74,794,505,124.59 - 25,627,290,010.55 = 1,905,252,677,348.20 (printed .21). End-2024: 1,961,782,254,517.10 / 1,535.3176 = 1,277,769,664.41; minus 1,169,233,308.69 = 108,536,355.72. June 2026: 1,054,225,771.14 + 213,555,219.78 = 1,267,780,990.92; bilateral 213,555,219.78 - 112,160,035.11 = 101,395,184.67; multilateral 1,061,898,843.63 - 1,054,225,771.14 = 7,673,072.49; 1,327,464,380.67 - 1,267,780,990.92 = 59,683,389.75. Domestic: 595,951,152,712.57 + 578,564,811,688.30 = 1,174,515,964,400.87; + 43,943,144,221.49 = 1,218,459,108,622.36 (DMO 1,219,458,755,148.34 is 999,646,525.98 higher); + 1,846,300,174.36 = 1,220,305,408,796.72 (846,653,648.38 above DMO). Bank loans 476,476,838,416.90 + 297,513,294,342.48 - 177,828,352,673.83 - 210,627,372.98 = 595,951,152,712.57; bonds 370,383,435,035.66 + 244,815,000,000.00 - 36,633,623,347.36 = 578,564,811,688.30; debt schedule total 595,951,152,712.57 + 43,943,144,221.49 + 578,564,811,688.30 + 1,905,252,677,348.21 = 3,123,711,785,970.57 as printed. FAAC: external debt deductions 6,931,766,965.62 + 6 x 8,530,201,484.76 + 5 x 6,937,812,107.78 = 92,802,036,413.08 (accounts 92,802,036,413). Accounts statutory 11,094,208,808 + 92,802,036,413 = 103,896,245,221; federal gross statutory for the twelve months 101,096,645,799.32; difference 2,799,599,421.68. VAT: accounts 466,442,870,654 + 98,731,840,985 = 565,174,711,639; federal twelve months gross 558,579,717,052.96; difference 6,594,994,586.04, of which September 56,726,878,921 - 50,131,884,334.66 = 6,594,994,586.34 (net 49,050,456,290 - 42,455,461,703.75 = 6,594,994,586.25); the other eleven months differ by at most 0.46. Accounts' VAT deductions 98,731,840,985 against federal 98,711,840,985.23: the N20,000,000 difference is October, where the accounts show 6,886,025,187 deducted and the federal row 6,866,025,186.97, with gross VAT identical at 61,101,852,376.

What this does not establish

Whether the five facilities the accounts list are in fact absent from the debt office's records, and why; the accounts make that statement and the debt office's one-line-per-state table cannot confirm or refute it. Which lenders hold the 90 million euro Transport Master Plan and Omi-Eko facilities: the schedule names no creditor for those rows. Why NG-CARES, recorded in naira, is counted among external loans. What explains the remaining $5,620,468.73 of the external gap. Whether the $101,395,184.67 rise in the debt office's bilateral column for Lagos by June 2026 reflects any of the five facilities. Which items the debt office's domestic figure for Lagos includes. What the additional N6,594,994,586.34 of VAT the accounts record for September 2025 was, and why the accounts' gross statutory allocation is N2,799,599,421.68 above the federal rows (in eight months the monthly difference equals, to within N1, either the other-deductions column or the ecology share on the same federal row; in April and July to September no column matches). Nothing in the documents suggests wrongdoing by the state, the debt office or anyone else, and none is alleged. Neither the Lagos State Government nor the Debt Management Office was asked for comment.