Budget Office's latest report restates 2025 first-half deficits N1.64 trillion higher and first-half capital releases from N428.18bn to N1.63bn

The Budget Office of the Federation, part of the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning, publishes a quarterly Budget Implementation Report on the federal budget. Each one compares revenue, spending, debt service and borrowing with the budget. On 30 September 2026 Vero Record opened the office's 'Quarterly Budget Implementation' page at budgetoffice.gov.ng. The latest year in its archive is 2025, and it has no folder for 2026. The newest document listed is the '2025 Third Quarter Budget Implementation Report', a 50-page PDF with the internal link name 'reviewed-2025-third-quarter-macroeconomics-financial-analysis'. The same page links the first- and second-quarter 2025 reports. We downloaded all three PDFs and read them. The file metadata of the third-quarter report gives a creation date of 21 August 2026. That date comes from the file, not from any stated publication date, so it is our inference that the report went online in late August 2026.

Because nothing for 2026 has been published, this story does not deal with the first or second quarter of 2026. It deals with the 2025 figures, which the federal government has now published twice and which disagree with each other.

Both the second-quarter and third-quarter reports include a Table 3.9, headed 'FGN Budget Expenditure and Fiscal Account', with the source line 'OAGF and Budget Office of the Federation, 2025'. That is the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation plus the Budget Office. In the second-quarter report the table runs to June 2025 and has a column for each of the first two quarters. The third-quarter report extends it to September 2025 and repeats those two columns. The two versions of the same columns do not agree.

The largest gap is in the deficit. In the second-quarter report, the 'Aggregate Fiscal Deficit' row shows N3,043.30 billion for January to March 2025 and N2,659.96 billion for April to June. The report's text gives these as N3.04 trillion and N2.66 trillion, and the first-quarter report also gives N3.04 trillion for its quarter. In the third-quarter report the same row shows N3,769.59 billion for the first quarter and N3,575.33 billion for the second. On our own arithmetic, which we have checked twice, the first quarter is N726.29 billion higher than before and the second is N915.37 billion higher. Together the restated half-year deficit is N1,641.66 billion larger than the one the government first published.

The capital line changes even more. The second-quarter report shows 'Capital Expenditure (MDAs and Others)' of N34.32 billion in the first quarter and N393.86 billion in the second, N428.18 billion for the half year. The text of each report matches its table. The first-quarter report says 'the sum of N34.32 billion was released to MDAs', and the second-quarter report says 'the sum of N393.86 billion was released to MDAs'. In the third-quarter report the line is renamed 'Capital Expenditure (MDAs)', and the same two quarters show N1.63 billion and N0.00. The third quarter shows N16.08 billion, and the report's text gives that same N16.08 billion as the amount 'released to MDAs & Others and cash-backed for their 2025 capital projects'. So the report now shows N17.71 billion for the first nine months of 2025 on this line, down from N428.18 billion for the first six months alone in the earlier report.

The budget column underneath also changed. In the second-quarter report the annual provision for 'Capital Expenditure (MDAs and Others)' is N18,532.16 billion. In the third-quarter report 'Capital Expenditure (MDAs)' is N5,717.40 billion, and a separate row, 'Capital Supplementation & Others', holds N6,140.84 billion. The column heading changes from '2025 APPROVED BUDGET' to '2025 AMENDED BUDGET', and 'Aggregate FGN Expenditure' falls from N54,990.17 billion to N48,316.24 billion. A reclassification between budget lines could explain part of the move in the capital figures. However, the third-quarter report shows N50.29 billion under 'Capital Supplementation & Others' for the second quarter and nothing for the first. Even with that row added, the N428.18 billion from the earlier report is not reached. The report does not say which lines were moved or why.

Revenue for the first half did not change between the two tables. Both show N4,954.33 billion for the first quarter and N5,974.99 billion for the second. The second-quarter report's own summary, however, gives 'Aggregate FGN Revenue (April-June 2025)' as 'N5.23 trillion', which differs from the N5,974.99 billion in its own table by about N745 billion on our arithmetic. The report does not reconcile the two figures.

The third-quarter report also gives two figures for its own quarter. Its summary on page iii says: 'Fiscal Deficit: N2.18 trillion (below projection)'. Table 3.9 shows N2,182.50 billion, and section 3.9.8 on page 30 repeats N2.18 trillion, calling it 'N0.32 billion (17.20 percent) above' a projected N1.86 trillion. On page xv, however, the executive summary says the outturn 'resulted in a fiscal deficit of N0.33 trillion in the third quarter of 2025', 'N3.20 billion (90.68 percent) below the projected quarterly fiscal deficit of N3.53 trillion'. The table's variance column shows -325.88 against the quarterly budget. Our reading, which is inference, is that page xv printed that variance of about N0.33 trillion as if it were the deficit, and compared it with the N3.53 trillion quarterly projection from the first-quarter report instead of the N1.86 trillion the table now uses. The 'N0.32 billion' on page 30 is also inconsistent with its own numbers, since N2.18 trillion minus N1.86 trillion is about N0.32 trillion.

The debt figures on page xv conflict in the same way. That page says 'External debt service was N1.69 trillion in the quarter, N211.72 billion or 12.55 percent below the prorate projected figure'. Pages 27 and 28 say external debt service 'was projected at N1.69 trillion' and that the actual payment 'amounted to N1.47 trillion'. Table 3.9 shows N1,475.44 billion for foreign debt in the third quarter. The table and pages 27 to 28 agree with each other, so the N1.69 trillion on page xv appears to be the projection printed as the actual figure. That is our reading.

Using the third-quarter report's own table, we compared debt service with revenue, which the report itself calls 'elevated'. From January to September 2025, 'Sub-Total Debt Service' was N12,524.74 billion and aggregate FGN revenue was N18,632.82 billion. By our calculation, debt service took about 67.2 percent of revenue. For the third quarter alone, N3,384.31 billion against N7,703.50 billion is about 43.9 percent. Because the figures for the first two quarters have been restated, a reader who worked out the same ratios from the earlier reports would get the same revenue base but a different picture of the deficit and of capital spending.

The restated table raises the three-quarter deficit to N9,527.42 billion. On our re-addition, N3,769.59 billion plus N3,575.33 billion plus N2,182.50 billion comes to N9,527.42 billion, so the table is internally consistent. Page 30 describes this total as 'higher than the 2025 three quarter estimated budget deficit'. Using the first-half deficits the Budget Office originally published, N3,043.30 billion and N2,659.96 billion, together with its own third-quarter N2,182.50 billion, the nine-month total would be N7,885.76 billion. The table's budgeted three-quarter deficit is N5,569.86 billion, so the restated and original totals are both above it.

The financing items were also restated. In the second-quarter report, 'Multi-lateral / Bi-lateral Project-tied Loans' shows N70.11 billion for the first quarter and N1,605.68 billion for the second. In the third-quarter report the same row shows N758.98 billion and N1,309.24 billion, and those two figures now also appear on the expenditure side. In the second-quarter report, that expenditure-side row showed N0.00 for both quarters. This change is probably one reason the aggregate deficit went up, since loan-funded spending counts towards it. That is our inference. The report does not describe the method.

None of this shows that money went missing or was misused, and Vero Record makes no such claim. A report that changes what is counted as capital, or folds project-tied loans into spending, can legitimately produce different totals. The issue is that the government's own implementation reports for 2025 now give two sets of figures for the same six months, and the newer report gives no note, footnote or reconciliation. Readers using the first- and second-quarter reports, which are still online, will get figures that the office's latest report contradicts without saying so.

Budget Implementation Reports are the main public source on whether an appropriation is actually carried out. The National Assembly, analysts and state finance officials rely on them to track releases against the Act. In the second-quarter report, capital releases to ministries were N428.18 billion for the half year. In the third-quarter report they are N17.71 billion for nine months against an annual line of N5,717.40 billion, which is 0.31 percent on our arithmetic. Which figure is correct determines whether the 2025 capital budget was implemented slowly or hardly at all.

The Budget Office website listed no Budget Implementation Report for any quarter of 2026 on 30 September 2026. We are therefore unable to check 2026 revenue, releases or debt service against the 2026 Appropriation Act from this source. A request for comment will go to the Budget Office of the Federation through the contact details on its website, asking which set of 2025 first- and second-quarter figures it stands by, what changed between the reports, and when the 2026 reports will be published. Any reply will be added to this story.

What this rests on

Three Budget Office of the Federation PDFs (Q1, Q2 and Q3 2025 Budget Implementation Reports) downloaded from budgetoffice.gov.ng on 30 September 2026 and read in full where relevant, especially Table 3.9 in each report and the summary pages. Grade A for figures quoted directly. Differences, ratios and the reading of the page xv errors are Vero Record's own arithmetic and inference, grade C, and are labelled as such in the text.

What this does not establish

Why the figures were restated. Whether the N34.32bn and N393.86bn capital releases were reversed, reclassified or wrongly reported in the first place. Which set of figures the Accountant-General's accounts support. The exact date the Q3 report went online (only the file metadata date of 21 Aug 2026 is known). Whether any 2026 reports exist offline. No response from the Budget Office yet.