Oyedele's ministry says states and councils got N10.4tn of N15.8tn from subsidy removal. The FAAC sharing formula gives them N8.56tn

The Federal Ministry of Finance says the removal of the petrol subsidy released N15.8 trillion to the Federation Account between June 2023 and December 2025, and that N10.4 trillion of it went to states and local governments. That is 65.8 per cent. The Federation Account is shared by a fixed formula, and the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation applies it to the kobo in its own monthly tables: after 13 per cent derivation is taken off mineral revenue, the Federal Government receives 52.68 per cent, the states 26.72 per cent and the local governments 20.60 per cent. On that formula, states, councils and the derivation fund together could receive at most 54.17 per cent of N15.8 trillion, which is N8.56 trillion. The ministry's figure is N1.84 trillion higher.

The figures come from "Fuel Prices and the Subsidy Question", a press briefing by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, on 8 October 2026. The speech and its 20 slides remain on the ministry's resources page. They are the government's most detailed published case against bringing the subsidy back, and Mr Oyedele has repeated that case this week. On Tuesday, 20 October, he wrote on his X account that "a fuel tax is not on the table", according to Nairametrics. On Wednesday, 21 October, he told a Chatham House audience in London that "the petrol subsidy is gone and it is staying gone", Reuters reported.

The passage sits under the fourth of four reasons the minister gave for caution. Page 3 of the speech reads: "Subsidy removal released 15.8 trillion naira to the Federation Account between June 2023 and December 2025. Of that, 10.4 trillion went to states and local governments." Slide 9 repeats both numbers under the heading "What the briefing says reform has delivered". Neither the speech nor the slides say how either figure was calculated, which months or revenue lines they cover, or what the Federal Government's own share was. By subtraction it would be N5.4 trillion, 34.2 per cent.

The Accountant-General's tables show how Federation Account money is actually divided. Table I of the FAAC disbursement report for revenue of July 2026, shared in August 2026, gives statutory allocations of N1,074,203,675,512.97 to the Federal Government, N544,850,459,561.63 to the states and N420,056,866,278.80 to local governments, N2,039,111,001,353.40 in all. Those are exactly 52.68, 26.72 and 20.60 per cent. A further N243,478,734,567.40 went to the 13% Derivation Fund for the oil-producing states.

The same split applied at the end of the period the briefing covers. Table I for revenue of November 2025, shared in December 2025, gives N668,335,538,594.46 to the Federal Government, N338,988,716,614.35 to the states and N261,346,091,401.78 to local governments, N1,268,670,346,610.59 in total, again 52.68, 26.72 and 20.60 per cent, with N134,355,503,706.59 to the derivation fund.

The arithmetic is short. If all of the N15.8 trillion were oil and gas revenue, 13 per cent would go first to the derivation fund, and states and councils would take 47.32 per cent of the remaining 87 per cent. That gives 0.13 plus 0.87 times 0.4732, or 54.17 per cent, N8.56 trillion, against N7.24 trillion for the Federal Government. If none of it attracted derivation, the sub-national share would be 47.32 per cent, N7.48 trillion. Either way the formula falls short of the N10.4 trillion in the briefing, by N1.84 trillion on the most generous reading. The briefing's split would need the states and councils to have received 11.65 percentage points more of the money than the formula gives them.

There are ways the ministry could have reached a larger number, and the briefing does not say whether it used any of them. Some Federation Account money reaches states outside the formula. The August 2026 table itself carries N259,000,000,000.00 as "Infrastructure Development Fund to States", N108,000,000,000.00 as "Intervention for State Security" and N18,163,078,852.38 as "13% Refunds on Subsidy, Priority Projects", each deducted before the three tiers share the rest. If the N10.4 trillion counts lines of this kind, transfers from the federal share, or value added tax, which the states and councils share at a higher rate, it is no longer a share of money "released to the Federation Account" by subsidy removal, as the speech describes it.

A second pair of figures in the same briefing does not line up either. Page 4 says tax and duty waivers on petroleum products save consumers "between 400 and 600 naira a litre today, equivalent to over 5 trillion naira in potential tax revenue". Page 5 says the full waiver of taxes and duties on petrol is "worth over 3.3 trillion naira for the year up to 30 September 2026". Slides 12 and 14 carry the same two numbers. On the briefing's own consumption estimate of 50 million litres a day, or 18.25 billion litres a year, N400 to N600 a litre comes to N7.30 trillion to N10.95 trillion a year. N3.3 trillion over the same volume is about N181 a litre. The N5 trillion figure is described as potential revenue measured against other countries' averages and the N3.3 trillion as the value of the waiver, so they may measure different things, but the briefing does not reconcile them.

The record supports the ministry on the direction of its claim. Under the formula, the states, the councils and the derivation fund together receive more of the Federation Account's oil revenue than the Federal Government does, so more than half of any genuine gain would have gone to them. The Accountant-General publishes the sharing tables every month, line by line, and the two tables Vero Record checked apply the formula exactly. Nothing in these documents suggests that any money was misdirected. The question is about how the ministry counted, not about what was paid.

What the documents do not establish is how the ministry arrived at N15.8 trillion, whether that figure is gross or net of deductions, or what the N10.4 trillion contains. Vero Record did not test the N15.8 trillion itself, the briefing's statement that 27 states could not reliably pay salaries in May 2023, or its statement that a N500 subsidy would cost almost everything the Federation Account shared in 2025. Only two monthly FAAC tables were examined, one from the end of the briefing's period and one from 2026; the 31 tables from June 2023 to December 2025 were not added up.

We invite a response from the Federal Ministry of Finance and its minister, Taiwo Oyedele, on how the N10.4 trillion was calculated and which revenue lines it includes, and from the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation, which prepares the FAAC tables. Any reply will be added to this report.

What this rests on

FMF press briefing 'Fuel Prices and the Subsidy Question', 8 October 2026, speech p.3: 'Subsidy removal released 15.8 trillion naira to the Federation Account between June 2023 and December 2025. Of that, 10.4 trillion went to states and local governments.' (repeated on slide 9 of 20). 10.4 / 15.8 = 65.82%; implied federal remainder 15.8 - 10.4 = 5.4tn = 34.18%. OAGF FAAC Disbursement, Table I, July 2026 revenue shared August 2026: statutory FGN 1,074,203,675,512.97 + States 544,850,459,561.63 + LGCs 420,056,866,278.80 = 2,039,111,001,353.40; shares 52.68% / 26.72% / 20.60%; 13% Derivation Fund 243,478,734,567.40; Infrastructure Development Fund to States 259,000,000,000.00; Intervention for State Security 108,000,000,000.00; 13% Refunds on Subsidy, Priority Projects 18,163,078,852.38. OAGF FAAC Disbursement, Table I, November 2025 revenue shared December 2025: statutory FGN 668,335,538,594.46 + States 338,988,716,614.35 + LGCs 261,346,091,401.78 = 1,268,670,346,610.59; shares 52.68% / 26.72% / 20.60%; derivation 134,355,503,706.59. Formula ceiling for states + LGs + derivation: 0.13 + 0.87 x (0.2672 + 0.2060) = 0.13 + 0.87 x 0.4732 = 0.13 + 0.411684 = 0.541684; 0.541684 x 15.8 = 8.5586tn (N8.56tn). Federal share 0.87 x 0.5268 = 0.458316 x 15.8 = 7.2414tn; check 8.5586 + 7.2414 = 15.8. Without derivation 0.4732 x 15.8 = 7.4766tn. Gap 10.4 - 8.5586 = 1.8414tn (N1.84tn); 65.82% - 54.17% = 11.65 points. Waivers: speech p.4 'between 400 and 600 naira a litre ... over 5 trillion naira in potential tax revenue'; p.5 'worth over 3.3 trillion naira for the year up to 30 September 2026' (1 October 2025 to 30 September 2026, 365 days); p.3 'roughly 50 million litres of petrol a day'. 50m x 365 = 18.25bn litres; x 400 = N7.30tn; x 600 = N10.95tn; 3.3tn / 18.25bn = N180.82 a litre; 5tn / 18.25bn = N273.97 a litre.

What this does not establish

The briefing does not say how the N15.8 trillion was calculated, whether it is gross or net of deductions, which revenue lines it covers, or what the N10.4 trillion includes; it may count transfers outside the vertical formula (such as the Infrastructure Development Fund to States, or transfers from the federal share), VAT, or something else, and the documents do not show which. Vero Record did not test the N15.8 trillion itself, did not add up the 31 FAAC tables from June 2023 to December 2025, and examined only the December 2025 and August 2026 tables. The claims that 27 states could not reliably pay salaries in May 2023 and that a N500 subsidy would cost nearly all the Federation Account shared in 2025 were not tested. The N5 trillion and N3.3 trillion waiver figures may measure different things. Nothing in the documents indicates that any money was misdirected or that any rule was broken. Mr Oyedele's statements of 20 and 21 October are taken from press reports. The ministry and the Accountant-General were not contacted before publication.